From the President

Thoughts on New Year's Day

by Patrick J. Grannan

It is New Year's Day (and New Millennium Day) as I write this column, so happy New Year! You are probably reading this on a day that does not feel like the unrushed interlude between past and future that today is for me. Nonetheless, I'm hoping you will take a moment to sit back and think about our profession—what it is today, what needs to be focused on most in order for it to have a successful future, and what role you personally can play in that future if you are so inclined. These are worthwhile things for the members of a profession to think about periodically if the profession's future is important to them. I'll give you my thoughts on each of these subjects, with the hope that this will provide useful food for your own thoughts.

What is the CAS? Fundamentally, it is an organization of professionals. It operates through hundreds of members who volunteer their time and energy, and through a support staff of about twenty people who carry out tasks under the direction of members (and do so very well in my observation). Although my focus here is mainly CAS members, the casualty actuarial profession is broader; it certainly includes the many professionals who work in this field and are taking the exams required for CAS membership.

The CAS has been very successful to date in my view. A few of the signs of success that I would point to are:

• The number of CAS members has more than doubled in the past ten years and nearly quadrupled in the past twenty. There is clearly strong demand for the knowledge and skills of CAS members.
• Large numbers of CAS members are active in its committees, write papers, and contribute to the profession in other ways. Many are also active in CAS Regional Affiliates, Academy committees, and other professional groups. I believe they do this because it is of value to them, whether directly in their jobs or indirectly by helping their profession.
• Employers place significant value on the ACAS and FCAS designations, and on the exams passed by those who are not yet members.
• CAS committees organize many, well-attended continuing education seminars.
• The CAS publishes a large volume of papers and articles on subjects of interest and practical importance to its members and others. In many cases, the work is sponsored or encouraged by CAS research committees.

Is the CAS perfect? No, but the imperfections have not resulted from any lack of good intentions or efforts. Will the CAS continue to be this successful or more so in the future? I believe this is likely, but only with ongoing efforts comparable to those by past generations of volunteers. They (including many of you readers) have given us a strong legacy to build on but a lot needs to be done.

The CAS has a great deal of important work in progress in all of its functional areas, which can be thought of broadly as basic education, continuing education, research, and public communication. However, I would cite three broad trends as needing particularly large amounts of solid, creative thinking and work in order for our profession to meet the needs of its members in the next few years. These trends have implications for all of the CAS functional areas. There isn't space here to go into details, but I'll say just a few words about each in the hope that you might be interested in contributing in some way.

First, globalization of the business world is in progress and is almost certain to continue. Our expertise will need to become more portable across geographic and political boundaries. We will also benefit from sharing knowledge with actuaries based in other countries, both by developing global best practices and by making it easier to work together for our common employers and clients.

Second, the skills needed by our employers are shifting, creating new opportunities and possibly decreasing demand for some traditional actuarial skills, narrowly defined. A few examples of the skills needed and forces at work are enterprise risk management, dynamic financial analysis, asset/liability management, risk securitization, and deregulation, as well as reducing barriers between financial services companies. The exam syllabus changes in 2000 were designed in part to reflect the changing skill needs. The CAS will continue to work to make the syllabus as good as possible. This will be an iterative process to some extent as illustrated by the recent adjustments to Exams 3 and 4.

Third, there is an increasing amount of competition for people with the aptitudes and interests that lead to good actuarial work. We need to make sure the opportunities in our profession are well known to such people and that the qualification process is no more of a barrier than necessary in assuring adequate knowledge.

If you would like to get involved in a CAS committee, a good way to do this is to complete the participation survey that CAS members receive each June. I encourage you to read the committee descriptions attached to the survey and volunteer for the ones that most interest you, since those are probably the ones you will find most rewarding as well as the ones in which you are likely to contribute the most.